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Behind The Transcaucasian Mirror
by Para Bellum
June 6, 2002
For a long time we saw Transcaucasus as a "Scary Zone" with permanent shooting, mobs of mercenaries in the mountains and similar horrors. In response to our concerns Armenians told us a story how a head of a family, vacationing from Gharabagh war in 1992, suddenly learned that his 18-year-old daughter joined a tourist group to visit Vilnius (Lithuania). Father's anger spilled over the limits: "You two are damn idiots!" - yelled he at his wife and the kid - "You just don't get it, there is a lot of shooting down there!" All efforts to explain to him that Vilnius is a peaceful and quiet city were wasted in vain. Similarly, our readers will have a hard time believing that Transcaucasus in general is peaceful and quiet, with some exceptions of course, but still a very strange place, with some pretty strange surprises, though not dangerous. Beyond the familiar TV image of "Zone of Chaos and Instability" there is a very complex region generating sophisticated processes, which may have significant impact on the whole world, as we know it.
REGIONAL CONFIGURATION
Current geopolitical configuration of the region looks pretty stupid. Desperately trying to save its image despite the loss of almost 30% of the territory, almost aggressive towards Russia, Aliyev's Azerbaijan makes a lot of noise around its little oil resources, luring some bordering countries into a kind of an auction for the right to host an oil pipeline, which may or may not carry some (!) oil. Shevardnadze's Georgia, torn apart by ethnic conflicts, still tries to keep it up with "Caucasian Pride," but her leader works really hard to sell himself to anybody for just something (because there isn't much left to sell), having in mind to maintain his power and some stability in the country. Armenia isn't recently very stable from the viewpoint of internal policy, but has an army capable of easily choking every country in the region and breaking all of their plans.
In addition to its "kernel" in Armenia proper, this controversial Russian-Armenian military system has two strongholds outside. In Georgia, Russian military base personnel in Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki district is recruited from local Armenians (who at least know where to shoot in case of emergency), and the district itself is out of Georgian military control. The other "stronghold" of Armenian "fortress" is located in Nagorno Gharabagh - a system of Mother Nature-powered military districts allowing functioning under total blockade and possessing a well-armed and disciplined army, which experts count as one of the strongest and No.1 in combat readiness on the entire post-Soviet space. Concerning upcoming pullout of Russian military bases from Georgia (with those of Batumi and Akhalkalaki out of consideration), some say that they (bases) will be placed in Armenia. This will transform Armenia into the largest Russian base outside Russia.
Armenia is a Russian frontier by all means. If, say, there are no Russian forces in Gharabagh, then they have Armenian ones, which are quite sufficient for everything. But here is a surprising turn - Armenian currency is tied to US$, Armenian budget heavily depends on the USA. And America is capable of pushing Armenia into a crisis compared to which the Russian one will look as a Prosperity.
How was this Transcaucasian Triangle configured? The answer is simple, but needs long explanations. On the verge of 1980-90s two Superpowers - Soviet Union and America - first tried to implement a joint project of creation of a "geopolitical space," whose idea was coming from then-popular "New World Order," spanning the whole Middle East and some parts of Middle Asia, and did a lot to push it, then suddenly dropped the project and pursued their own interests. But at that moment the whole area of Transcaucasus was well-marked by initial drafts of that joint project, otherwise known as "Five Seas Plan."
BIG PROJECT FOR SMALL DISASTERS
First, what does "Geopolitical Project" mean? It is understandable that every expansion proceeds after more or less thoughtful planning, but in the end of the XXth century we already deal with preliminary development (preparation) of the expansion territory, with this preparation making significant impact on the territory and its people, even if the expansion itself will be dropped in the future. Subsequent accumulation of targeted changes applies, and a region previously composed of very different countries and political entities becomes a unified structure under the total control of somebody with World Government in mind. The whole project is implemented one piece at a time, sometimes in a "Fourth Dimension," revealing itself only in the form of "chaotic" movements in the region.
In current Geopolitics an "Implemented Project" means a way of direct control over a widespread region - a control requiring minimal investments or power interference. Here is a tiny example of a self-regenerating low-profile conflict: Arab - Israeli. Only one move was initially made: somebody who drew the map of Israel, designed it with a "waistline" - a few miles wide passage between two parts of the country. No way Israelis would resist the temptation to make that "waistline" thicker. Even now, when the "waistline" size doesn't matter anymore because of modern weaponry, its existence is of so low comfort that Arab-Israeli conflict will last forever and will serve an eternal cause for external interference in the region. Therefore, eternal will become also the "peace regulation process", which provides an unprecedented opportunity for external control.
Something like that was designed to become the "Five Seas Plan," but, of course, much, much bigger. It was a New World Order Control Project for the countries in between Caspian, Black, Mediterranean, Red seas and Persian Gulf. The whole region was projected to have a complex structure with long-lasting conflicts on its angles, red-hot in the initial phase, sophisticated from the viewpoint of International Law and Human Rights and, therefore, allowing a time-unlimited regulating process with unlimited amount of brokers-peacekeepers. In the geographical center of the "Five Seas Plan" was placed some kind of "Black Hole" - a land without law, rules, political life, a "Prostration Zone." Between us sane people, that hole has a name: "Kurdistan" - an ancient land divided between four countries: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria. Angle conflicts - existing Arab-Israeli, and some newly warming up: Armenian-Turkish, Southern Hazarabaijan (Iran), conflict between two Muslim denominations in Southern Iraq (provoked by Iraq-Kuwait war and "unfinished" international intervention), and conflict around Black Sea straits.
"Five Seas Plan" was a Soviet-American project. It was somehow understandable why Russia dropped from it in 1993. The way that project worked was uncomfortable for Russians. Complex, twisted, not to say foul play - it is definitely not Russian way. Also at that time Americans decided that direct impact is more effective. For the Soviet Union the situation was quite different: America couldn't create that "Five Seas" stuff without USSR, which had the Transcaucasus under control, and Soviet leaders must have their own motives for giving a part of Soviet territory to stage a conflict. Motive No.1 was not to lose all their power. The NWO system could make the direct Soviet-American confrontation unnecessary, but Soviet leadership was unable to start its own game to fight it. Moreover, Gorby himself was an NWO adept, trying to maximize his own participation in it, and cowardly and provocative "Five seas Plan" strategy fitted extremely well his political behavior. Indirect joint control by USSR and USA over a huge region through provoking bloody conflicts - that might become the pearl of Gorbachev's "New Thinking" strategy.
OK, let's go back to Transcaucasus. Here the central point was so-called "Gharabagh conflict" - a kick-off for a whole series of local conflicts. For NWO it never had its own purpose - just to provoke Armenian-Turkish conflict over Nakhjevan. Soon after Gharabagh conflict took off, a so-called "Goble Plan" appeared: to swap Gharabagh and Zangezur and, therefore, to connect Nakhjevan to Azerbaijan proper, cutting Armenia off Iran - the only Armenian reliable way to outside world. It was easy to predict that victorious Armenians would simply sweep Nakhjevan if that plan would show signs to implementation. That is pretty easy strategically, and also would kill the Goble Plan for good, but also would push hundreds of thousands Azerbaijani-Turkish refugees to Turkey and Iran, provoking conflicts in Southern Hazarabaijan, automatically starting Armenian-Turkish war, since by 1921 treaty Armenia can't occupy Nakhjevan, and, maybe, Armenian-Georgian, because groundlocked Armenians are in desperate need of an access to some sea. Troubled in Abkhazian, Osetian and internal conflicts Georgia would be knocked out for many years. Armenia will get in a low profile fighting for centuries with Turkey. Azerbaijan will have it with Iran.
"FIVE SEAS PLAN" STEPS
Five Seas ideas didn't just rest on the paper. Both Soviets and Americans made some moves to implement them. First, Gharabagh conflict was triggered. Then a "scarecrow" was introduced in the form of the Goble Plan. Armenians (including experienced Gharabagh fighters) got mentally ready to take over Nakhjevan. Iran got scared by possible flood of refugees and, therefore, upcoming rebellion in South Hazarabaijan. Along with all these, Russia gets a chance to arm Armenians, with the USA demonstratively keeping its eyes closed. Because, according to "Five Seas," Armenia will fight Turkey, and this will not be like some local ethnic conflict! Georgia is helped to get dragged into multiple tribal fights. Azerbaijan is forced to live with the loss of Gharabagh and surrounding regions, frequently beating drums of "lost national pride" and unification with Iranian South Hazarabaijan.
Armenia, on the other hand, got an illusion of a "blockade," which, as we now know, couldn't possibly exist - otherwise how did they got huge Russian military supplies? When in 1990 Azerbaijan tried to blockade Armenia for real, it immediately got blockaded from Russia and retreated in a hurry. But Armenia sank into darkness, cold and hunger - only the government and railroad workers knew that there was no blockade and the railroad through Azerbaijan is functioning. Armenians in 1992-93 were driven into horrible situation, they didn't even enjoyed Gharabagh victories, they didn't think for what purpose everybody keeps arming them.
The implementation of the "Five Seas Plan" proceeded somehow till 1993. Then Russia makes a sharp turn and gets out of game. Next came downplays in South Osetian and (partially) Abkhazian conflicts. Shevardnadze's regime is helped to overcome Zviadists. Rumble in Adjaria is not allowed to trigger off, but kept standby, just in case. Suret Husseinov got no help, despite his illusions about it (when making his move from Gandzak-Kirovabad he knew, that there was significant Russian military contingent), Haidar Aliyev keeps turning attention of his nation away from Gharabagh and Southern Hazarabaijan, and focuses it on oil "resources," which are "huge" and will allow Azebaijanis to live up to, say, Kuwait.
In Armenian foreign policy front seats got occupied by Gharabagh people - the only ones in the region who never experienced those "goods" of "Prostration Zone," and who fought a very sensible war for all these years (this was the case when a good war was better, than a bad peace). In the beginning of 1993 Gharabaghians decline to accept the foul language of NWO - a powerful weapon, because often a subject becomes changed to the name in was given. To give our reader some feeling of phantasmagoric atmosphere of those days, we'll bring a couple of examples.
Winter 1993. Armenians captured Kelbajar. Some international bodies phone call them.
- Did you capture Kelbajar to create the second humanitarian corridor?
- No.
Silence.
- Did you captured Kelbajar?
- Yes.
- To create a second humanitarian corridor?
- No.
- How come - No?
- Just captured.
The calling side hangs up the phone. Then call again.
- Did you captured Kelbajar to create the second humanitarian corridor?
End of May - beginning of July, 1993. OSCE offers a new initiative, which is supposed to serve as an illusion of a peace process. Under this scenario, in the conflict which becomes recognized as three-sided, two of the sides must agree and the third will play a "bad boy." This "bad boy" part was, of course destined for Gharabagh Republic, as having no international status, but very ambitious though. So, Aliyev immediately signed the treaty, then George Petrosian - the Leader of Gharabagh - signed (we don't think he read it carefully, because, with his brains being not drugged by "Five Seas" mirage, he saw it all as a kind of some funny game), then Levon Ter-Petrosian grabs the pen (with his reputation of a politician he simply can't refuse), but ... he just can't sign it, otherwise it will be implemented! The simplest solution: to push Gharabaghians not to sign this thing. Ter-Petrosian himself travels to Gharabagh, and from different foreign embassies phone calls tear the silence.
- Why you didn't signed the treaty?
- We did.
Hang up the phone. Then a new call:
- Why you didn't signed the treaty?
- Wrong. We did.
The whole thing ends by George Petrosian's resignation. Gharabagh leadership comes to the hands of Robert Kocharian, who in those days was considered a Ter-Petrosian's man, and he refuses to sign the treaty.
Gharabaghians then managed to torpedo "Five Seas" mechanism. The war on their land becomes unnecessary for NWO and it ends. But how it does? In the Summer of 1992 Azerbaijanis (actually, Russians on tanks, by some secret agreement with Ter-Petrosian) captured the Martakert district along with external villages Shahumian, Azat, Kamo. In the Fall of 1992, Gharabaghians returned their lost territories with the exception of those mentioned villages. In 1992-93 Winter Gharabaghians advanced again, but in a different direction, capturing Kelbajar. Then, for the first time in post-Soviet era, a very specific experiment was staged: the Azerbaijani population of the county was allowed to peacefully leave their houses and proceed to Azerbaijan proper - the whole operation was executed with very little blood. Summer 1993 - Gharabaghtsis are again ready to advance, but, surprisingly, they don't go to get their villages back. Instead, they capture the large city of Aghdam, then turn south, west and north, conquering four counties (Fizuli, Jabrail, Kubatly, Zangelan), cleaning up the entire space between them, Iranian border, and Armenia proper. The moment comes, when America is still in the project, but Russia dropped it already.
Picture those four occupied counties. As it was done before, the whole operation proceeds almost at no loss of military force, civil population didn't got a single scratch. The latter have to become internally displaced persons, maybe refugees, but they must decide where to go. On one hand they are separated from Iran (South Hazarabaijan) only by Arax river, which is pretty easy to cross there, even for women and children. Gharabaghians stay away from the river for 3 miles - that was a humanitarian corridor, leading to the East - to Azerbaijan mainland. That situation lasted two months. Americans on Iranian bank were ready: tents, blankets, food - everything was in place, keeping Azebaijanis well informed about it. But if they cross the river - immediately one of cornerstone conflicts in "Five Seas Plan" - in South Hazarabaijan - will be triggered, since it was easy to provoke young South Azerbaijanians for a rebellion by demonstrating to them "poor" refugees. In that case NWO could easily live without Armenians capturing Nakhjevan.
Definitely, South Azerbaijanians wouldn't care much where they got their refugees from. On the other hand, Russia, therefore forced to participate in the project, would push Armenians to get Nakhjevan ... and here we come: Armenian-Turkish war. For other cornerstone conflicts in the project Russian involvement doesn't matter - maybe some passive role around Black Sea Straits. The problem is, that if northern conflicts die, there will be no sense to trigger southern ones. In that case, Americans don't have to go around the bush, but rule the territory directly.
Russia, on her side, now had one single option left - to push refugees to Azerbaijan mainland. Gharabaghian part here was pretty simple: to keep the corridor open as long as necessary. At this point Aliyev was Russian ally - to avoid the headache from South Hazarabaijan. Refugees are in a mess, they keep waiting, thank to Gharabaghians not attacking them, clock is ticking and general public demands some news from the place. TV headlined Gharabaghians capturing Kubatly four times in a row every time with a new flavor, making further comments easy. Finally, they began to move slowly to Azerbaijan. "Five Seas Plan" got clobbered!
NEW PROJECTS AND OLD CONFLICTS
After the demolition of the project Transcaucasians finally got a chance to breathe freely - it isn't that USA or Russia Left them alone - many different projects come up every other day. But none of them includes a dogfight, like previous one.
In Baku they play a pipeline con - well, after 6 years of lies it is headed to an end. Maybe they will leave some bluff on the surface.
In Georgia they keep trying to built a "Caucasian House", keeping in mind to live by taxing everybody, who's passing through.
In Armenia, they try to figure which one is more scary - an economy drought (which will bring them right into American hugs), or military threat from neighbors, also old friendship makes them to strengthen Russian ties.
PARA BELLUM
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